Heat’s thinking at No. 15 in Wednesday night’s NBA draft? ‘Upside’

MIAMI — While assuredly serious stuff, there also is ample gamesmanship when it comes to the NBA draft, which opens with Wednesday night’s first round at Brooklyn’s Barclays Center.

So, yes, there was a measure of internal satisfaction when the Heat’s selection of Jaime Jaquez Jr. at No. 18 last year came as a surprise to many. Turns out, it was a hand well played, with Golden State Warriors coach Steve Kerr later revealing his team had interest in Jaquez at No. 19.

So when it comes to Wednesday night’s selection at No. 15, if the Heat remain with the pick, the mock drafts yet could be mocked, with the Heat again declining details on their workout procession these past few weeks.

Of course, the Heat nonetheless have been monitoring the mocking, if only to crack the code of others.

So what could be the Heat’s answer at No. 15 (if indeed the pick is at No. 15 and is retained)?

The prognosticating very much has all over the board.

ESPN: Zach Edey, C, Purdue.

Tankathon: Devin Carter, G, Providence.

FanSided: Ja’Kobe Walter, G, Baylor.

Bleacher Report: Topic.

SB Nation: Collier.

NBA Draft Room: Edey.

So from biggest (Edey) to small (McCain), from four years of college ball (Kolek) to none (Holland), there is no clear vision of who will be standing in a Heat draft hat next to Commissioner Adam Silver around 9:30 p.m. or so on Wednesday night.

“This isn’t an exact science,” said Adam Simon, the Heat’s vice president of basketball operations and assistant general manager, who oversees the team’s draft. “You’re dealing with lots of factors. So to sit here and tell you we have a concrete plan, that we can figure out who the one through 15, the one through 60 are, it’s subjective.”

In introducing Jaquez last year, the Heat indicated they viewed the wing out of UCLA as the best fit, as a 22-year-old coming off four collegiate seasons. And, indeed, Jaquez proved to be a player of the moment, an immediate contributor needed in the injury absences of Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro, with play that led to first-team All-Rookie selection.

But Simon cautioned not to necessarily consider that a tell.

“I think every player has his own path,” he said. “And we’re going to evaluate the players that are going in the top five, in the next tier, in the next 10, all the way down. So you have to look at every one of those players and make the ranking and decide where you’re going to slot them in.

“Any player that we’re going to pick, we like enough that we would invest that draft pick into developing them. And, so, the time frame on how long it’s going to take is unknown. But if you’re going to take a player that’s older, that doesn’t have that upside and doesn’t get better and doesn’t play for you, then what’s the point of picking a player who’s a little older?”

Upside, Simon said, is the operative word in the Heat’s war room at Kaseya Center.

“The history of the draft and the formula shows that taking a player with upside at the top of the draft, there’s more success than taking an older player,” he said. “There’s a reason for that. But, in every draft, there is a 22-year-old, a 23-year-old that was taken later, a Draymond Green, a Jimmy Butler, a Des Bane, a Jaime. There’s plenty of examples of that. But if you just look based on history, it’s going to tell you the best players in the league, the majority of them came out when they were 18, 19, 20 years old.

“So how do you not keep that in mind? How do you not factor that in when you’re drafting? You have to look at the draft as having a little patience to develop these players. If you’re fortunate enough to get one who can help you right away, great. If not, if you draft an older player that doesn’t get better, then you’re going to be disappointed because there might not be any more growth. So you’re banking on a player with upside.”

Draft party

With a concert the night of the first round of the NBA draft at Kaseya Center, the team instead will hold their draft party Wednesday at 7 p.m. at Vivo! Plaza at Dolphin Mall.

Per the Heat, “The free event will be hosted in the Plaza’s outdoor venue and will include immersive activities, special giveaways, a pop-up Heat Store, and exclusive photo opportunities.”

With the two-round draft split over two nights this year for the first time, no fan event is planned by the team for Thursday’s second round.

Heat’s thinking at No. 15 in Wednesday night’s NBA draft? ‘Upside’ | What mock drafts say (2024)

Draft party

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